It has been about four years since COVID-19 was first identified, and a great deal of progress has been made both in our understanding of the virus and in our ability to control it since then. Our approach to the pandemic has evolved with the development of antiviral tablets, simple at-home diagnostics, and new immunizations suited to current virus strains.
Despite these advances, health experts believe COVID-19 still poses a threat, and it will continue to remain with us for some time to come. Here's what we can expect from the infectious disease as we reach the sixth year of dealing with the pandemic.
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Respiratory viruses are more prevalent during the winter months. Unlike flu and RSV, which follow a seasonal ebb and flow, COVID-19 defies a fixed schedule. Its waves are observed in winter, spring, summer, and fall. Although a predictable pattern may emerge in the future, infectious disease expert Dr. Robert Murphy believes it is unlikely to occur in 2024. “COVID is different,” Murphy says. “It is its own thing.”
According to Andrew Pekosz, a professor of microbiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, if the virus moves into a fall and winter pattern, it could provide multiple benefits. If that happens, he says vaccination efforts would be simplified and public health messaging would be more effective, especially when compared to a virus with a year-round presence and irregular surges.
Predictable seasonality could allow hospitals and healthcare providers to better plan for an expected increase in patient numbers.
Remember how easy it looked to trace the virus in the early days of the pandemic with alpha, beta, delta, and omicron? The situation has now changed drastically, with new omicron descendants such as BA.2.86 and FL.1.5.1. Experts project an influx of new variants in 2024. Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly stresses the virus's continual evolution, advising people to accept and adapt to this constant transformation.
Since the emergence of Omicron in late 2021, the virus has primarily undergone small changes, allowing us to adapt through updated vaccines that address its latest variants. However, there's uncertainty about its future trajectory. Health experts express concern that a divergence in the virus's evolutionary path may render our current vaccines ineffective. This could, in turn, necessitate the development of new vaccines or lead to current antivirals becoming outdated, thereby prompting the need for novel designs.
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Experts point out that individuals have the ability to prevent the spread of possibly more dangerous virus variants. The greater the spread of a virus within a population, the higher the likelihood of mutations. By protecting ourselves and others against COVID-19, we actively contribute to the prevention of new variants from emerging, as each new case serves as a breeding ground for possible mutations.
Millions of people have been affected post-COVID-19 recovery by the enduring, sometimes incapacitating symptoms caused by long COVID. While there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding long COVID, scientists expect significant results in 2024.
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The National Institutes of Health has launched a series of clinical trials aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of, treating, and preventing long COVID. One trial will look into the efficacy of the COVID-19 therapy Paxlovid in treating the symptoms of this mysterious condition. Another trial will look at therapies for brain fog, memory loss, and cognitive problems associated with extended COVID. The outcomes of this extensive study project, which includes multiple investigations, will be released in stages.
COVID experts are optimistic about uncovering additional insights into its occurrence and duration in the coming year, as well as its underlying mechanisms.
We should expect new vaccines to appear as the virus evolves, requiring regular upgrades of the COVID-19 vaccine to reflect the most recent viral strains. According to Dr. Rachel Presti, Professor of Medicine and Medical Director of the Infectious Disease Clinical Research Unit at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, this is similar to the usual annual updates for the flu vaccination.
The virus seems to be diverging slightly from the effectiveness of the recently released September vaccine. Despite this, the current vaccine is a far superior match for current variants than its predecessor from last year. A potential combined flu-COVID vaccine could also be in the world in 2024 as manufacturers explore a single-shot solution guarding against both influenza and the coronavirus. Early trial data is encouraging, and Phase 3 studies are currently underway.
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The prospect of a combination vaccine has experts optimistic about delivering a key message to the majority of the population, particularly those at risk of severe forms of COVID or influenza. In essence, the aim is to highlight a simple way for individuals to protect themselves against these highly threatening pathogens by using a single, comprehensive vaccine.
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